New Sustainable Aviation Fuel Prices

New Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) prices ahead of EU, UK 2025 mandates

We're pleased to announce the launch of 11 new SAF prices - including spot market value assessments for SAF China, Malacca Straits, and US Gulf Coast. This adds to 13 existing General Index (GX) spot prices for Northwest Europe, as well as a broader set of HEFA production costs for the Netherlands and Singapore.

This extends our comprehensive ExWorks to Spot Market price offering for airlines, producers, traders, brokers, analysts, bankers, investors, and regulators seeking an understanding of the dynamics for these developing markets.

We are expanding our global aviation fuel price benchmark service to reflect the growing interest in alternative aviation fuels commonly referred to as “Sustainable Aviation Fuel” or “SAF”. Expanding production in Europe, East of Suez, and North America is increasing available supply and, in some places, driving the creation of spot markets.

Trade data for these markets is ingested into our data lake directly from approved submitters.

A full list of the new indexes is printed at the end of this blog.

A Global Aviation Service

GX now offers aviation price benchmarks in the following areas:

Fossil Jet Fuel: daily spot market prices and forward curves for the world’s major trading hubs in North America, Europe, Middle East and Asia-Pacific.

SAF: daily spot market prices, production costs and forward curves for the nascent trading hubs in North America, Europe and Asia.

CORSIA: daily spot market prices for aviation carbon offsets for the so-called ‘pilot phase’ projects, and ‘Phase 1’ prices will be launched in due course.

Market gears up for Europe SAF mandates

For the aviation industry, landmark SAF Mandates in the European Union and United Kingdom are looming ever closer on the horizon. From 2025, the region, which accounts for close to 20% of global aviation demand, will incorporate a 2% SAF Blend into the fuel pool. That’s the equivalent of approximately 1.25million MT of SAF which suppliers will need to source next year. The mandate falls on obligated suppliers, though airlines and their customers will ultimately pick up the tab.

Europe is expected to meet the required SAF volumes through a combination of domestic production (both neat SAF and co-processing) and imports from overseas producers. The new SAF indexes we’re announcing today provide pricing coverage across all the key demand centers and supply origins to help you manage the arrival of mandates in Europe.

GX has launched North West Europe spot market value prices on a FOB Barges and CIF Cargoes basis, as well as several SAF Jet Fuel Blends. The blend prices are calculated from Fossil Jet Fuel and SAF parent prices at ratios relevant to the market. A 2% blend is relevant for the EU and UK mandates from 2025; rising to 6% and 10% by 2030, respectively; 10% is also the voluntary target for a number of airlines and corporates; and 50% is the current blend ceiling permitted under aviation fuel standards. You can read more about our methodology by downloading our SAF factsheets here.

General Index Aviation Fuel Demand Analysis

Netbacks to SAF producers in Asia, USA

ASIA: GX has launched SAF FOB Malacca Straits and SAF FOB China indexes calculated using Clean tanker MR freight rates versus the destination benchmark in NWE. An increase in SAF originating East of Suez has centred around new capacity in Singapore and China. Malaysia is also expected to become a supplier. This supply is predominantly being moved intra-system or sold on offtake agreements. Spot trading of Neat SAF is increasing but accounts for a small minority of overall volumes.

USA: We have chosen for our first North American SAF index a USGC netback, reflecting the potential for supply to be exported to NWE – a route already commonly used for shipments of middle distillate fuels. A series of policy incentives in the United States of America as part of its 'SAF Grand Challenge' is stimulating rapid expansion in production. Some estimate a 14-fold increase in supply in 2024 alone. The US Gulf Coast, US West Coast, and US Mid-West are expected to be key production hubs.

In the next phase, we will build into the algorithmic methodologies an ability to prioritize real trade data (bids/offers/deals), when available, in the assessment process.

Transparent methodology

In new markets, where spot traded liquidity is thin and transparency poor due to commercial interests, it’s even more important to have price benchmarks which offer clarity and reliability. GX’s transparent methodologies allow you to track the assessment calculation process step by step via our flowcharts – demonstrating how an assessment incorporates bids/offers/deals and how indicative values are used on illiquid days. Here is an example for our SAF NWE FOB Barges Spot Market Value Price:

Full list of new GX SAF indexes

SAF Outright Prices

SAF Neat HEFA NWE FOB Barges

SAF Neat HEFA NWE CIF Cargoes

SAF Neat HEFA USGC FOB Cargoes

SAF Malacca Straits FOB Cargoes

SAF China FOB Cargoes

SAF Jet Blended Prices

SAF 50pct Jet Fuel Blend NWE FOB Barges

SAF 50pct Jet Fuel Blend NWE CIF Cargoes

SAF 10pct Jet Fuel Blend NWE FOB Barges

SAF 10pct Jet Fuel Blend NWE CIF Cargoes

SAF 6pct Jet Fuel Blend NWE FOB Barges

SAF 6pct Jet Fuel Blend NWE CIF Cargoes

SAF 2pct Jet Fuel Blend NWE FOB Barges

SAF 2pct Jet Fuel Blend NWE CIF Cargoes

SAF Differentials

SAF Neat HEFA NWE FOB Barges vs Jet NWE FOB Barges

SAF Neat HEFA NWE FOB Barges vs Jet NWE CIF Cargoes

SAF HEFA NWE FOB Barges vs ICE Low Sulphur Gasoil NWE Futures M1

SAF HEFA NWE FOB Barges vs ICE Low Sulphur Gasoil NWE Futures D7 to D28 (SAF Density Adjusted)

SAF Neat HEFA NWE FOB Barges vs Used Cooking Oil (UCO)

SAF Neat HEFA NWE FOB Barges vs ICE Low Sulphur Gasoil NWE Futures

SAF Neat HEFA NWE FOB Barges vs NWE CIF Cargoes

SAF Neat HEFA NWE CIF Cargoes vs Jet NWE CIF Cargoes

SAF HEFA NWE CIF Cargoes vs ICE Low Sulphur Gasoil NWE Futures M1

SAF Neat HEFA NWE CIF Cargoes vs ICE Low Sulphur Gasoil NWE Futures D7 to D28 (SAF Density Adjusted)